M1 continues to decline from its peak. This is the likely cause of the economic slowdown we are currently experiencing. Will this lead to a recession? It's possible, but the signs are not there at this time.
Austrian economic theory suggests that a slowdown in money growth is enough to push the economy into a recession. But there have been times when the money supply has slowed, but the economy did not enter a recession.
The following chart is M1 Money Supply on a year of year basis:
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