Monday, November 30, 2015

Can markets be manipulated over the long term?


The short answer is yes.  Although most market participants believe the markets are susceptible to short term manipulation, many feel market manipulation over the long term is not possible.  Although there are times when the market may get away from the authorities like the Fed, most of the time, the Fed can strongly influence or outright control markets.

As an analogy, most all government action is compulsory with the threat of punishment for non compliance.  The government need only to take a small group of people and make an example out of them for the rest to see.  For example, riots get a lot of play in the media.  But once the government has had enough, they make an example out of specific groups (i.e. beatings and arrests) for all to see.  This is typically enough to send most rioters packing and keep those watching at home.

The same analogy holds true for the Fed and why the old adage of "Don't fight the Fed" has endured for many years.  The Fed will overwhelm any group of market participants because of their printing press.  So most, but not all, jump on the side of the Fed. 

To conclude, the Fed can manipulate markets over the long term.  



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