El-Erian is a trend follower. He has a way of summarizing what is happening, but is too smart to make any predictions. So when he says it's almost impossible for the Fed not to hike, it is just about a sure thing that the Fed will raise. If not, it will be a big surprise to markets. From El-Erian's article on Bloomberg:
The jobs report for November released Friday doesn't just make it a near-certainty that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates later this month. The data also further confirm the divergence in the policies of the Fed and the European Central Bank. And they highlight the cyclical and structural complexities facing the U.S. economy, which will require the Fed to pursue the loosest tightening cycle in its modern history.
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